Are Promotions Really a Popularity Contest?

We’ve all seen it: the person who seems to be the VP’s golden child gets the promotion, while the quiet, high-performer stays exactly where they are.

I coached a Director of Engineering (let’s call him Tim) who was deeply frustrated after watching multiple promotion cycles pass him by. He had been asking for the next level for nearly two years, with no clear answer on when or even if it would happen. Over time, the uncertainty began to erode his satisfaction with a job he had once loved.

If you’ve been patiently waiting (or actively vying) for that next step, it’s easy to feel like the system is rigged. But the truth is, promotions are rarely just about how much people like you. They’re the result of a combination of factors, many of which are a mystery to those outside the decision-making process — and increasingly influenced by broader economic conditions.

If this sounds familiar, you’re not alone—and it’s probably not personal.

The Factors You Can’t Control

Before you blame favoritism or your own personality, it’s important to understand the variables outside your control:

Business Need

Promotions aren’t just rewards for past performance; they’re investments in the future of the business. If the company doesn’t need a Senior Director in your function right now, it’s difficult to make the case, no matter how strong your performance has been.

Economic Climate

In periods of economic volatility, organizations tend to become more conservative. Leadership may be bracing for slower growth, tighter margins, or future restructures. That uncertainty can lead to increased scrutiny on every incremental cost — including headcount and compensation. You can be fully ready for a bigger role and still hear, “not right now.”

Company Structure

Fast-growing companies tend to create new opportunities quickly. More mature organizations often move toward flatter structures, which means fewer promotional paths. In small or mid-sized companies, there may simply be less room to move up, regardless of how good you are.

None of this is a reflection of your worth or potential. It’s simply context.

Business Cases and Leveling Guides

Most organizations use leveling guides to define what’s expected at each level of the organization and pay scale. In theory, getting approval for a promotion requires making a business case — demonstrating an expanded scope of work, often through some combination of:

• Increased complexity of work and decision-making

• Ownership of larger budgets or revenue impact

• A shift from execution to higher levels of leading strategy and teams

In uncertain markets, these expectations don’t disappear—but the bar often gets higher, and the margin for ambiguity shrinks.

Where “Popularity” Actually Fits In

Is there a social component to promotions? Yes—but it’s not about being liked. It’s about being trusted.

In uncertain economic conditions, leaders are risk-averse. They promote people they trust to operate effectively under pressure and lead through ambiguity. If key decision-makers don’t understand your impact—or if they see you as someone who stays in their silo—they won’t see you as a “safe bet” for a promotion.

This is why visibility and strategic relationships matter. It’s not about winning a popularity contest; it’s about ensuring that the leaders making the decisions have the evidence they need to trust you with more responsibility.

Taking Control: Your Three-Step Game Plan

If you feel stuck, waiting for a tap on the shoulder isn’t a strategy. Here’s where you can be proactive:

1. Own Your Readiness

Ask for specific feedback to understand the gap between where you are and what’s required at the next level. Look for “stretch assignments” to build the skills you need and demonstrate growth before a promotion is on the table.

2. Build Strategic Relationships

Be intentional. In uncertain times, sponsors (people who understand your work and can advocate for you when decisions are being made behind closed doors) matter more than mentors. Build relationships with key people outside your immediate chain of command.

3. Consider the “External” Pivot

Sometimes the fastest way up is sideways — or out. If your organization is structurally flat or in a prolonged holding pattern, a lateral move into a growing function in your current company or to a more stable or expanding company may be the better choice.

Tim’s Turning Point

In Tim’s case, we shifted the focus from “why not me?” to “who knows what I do?”

We conducted a 360-degree assessment that included feedback from his manager, peers, and, most importantly, the VP of his function. This gave him a clear (and humbling) picture of how his skills and impact were perceived.

We built a plan: targeted skill development and a deliberate relationship-building strategy. While Tim didn’t get the promotion in the next cycle, he stopped feeling like a victim of favoritism and felt more engaged in his work. And, built his readiness for future opportunities. 

The Bottom Line

A promotion is a mix of timing, readiness, and visibility. You can’t always control the timing, but you can ensure that when the opportunity arrives, your potential is impossible to ignore.

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Stop waiting for a "tap on the shoulder" that might never come. If you’re ready to stop guessing and start building a strategic path to your next promotion, let's talk. Book a discovery call to see how we can turn your hard work into visible impact.